Why Canada needs to declare a critical supply emergency now

In March, Canadian analyst Rory Johnston predicted that oil could hit $200 a barrel by summer if the Strait of Hormuz stayed closed. In June, Exxon and Chevron executives forecast $150 by mid-July. As deal after deal to reopen the strait collapses, it’s time to stop hoping for the best and start preparing for the worst.

High oil prices are seen as a net positive for Canada. For energy sellers, that’s true. For everyone else, it means crisis: the largest oil shock in history is headed our way, and nothing can stop it. If the strait stays closed long enough, Johnston warned, the economic impact “will be like the pandemic without COVID.” This time, Canada must get the crisis response right.

My non-partisan report, Outrunning the Storm, explored risk scenarios at $90, $150 and $200 a barrel. At every price, critical national systems are at risk. It’s more than energy: petrochemical inputs underpin the entire food system, including fertilizer; the entire healthcare system, including medical supplies and pharmaceuticals; the lifeline to remote First Nations communities. In Ontario, car sales, manufacturing and a risky finance sector are exposed –industrial capacity Canada cannot lose.

The report includes 90 urgent recommendations which will deliver a $10 to $15 return on every dollar – because that is what it will cost if we wait. Some are near-costless, like lowering speed limits and extending Ontario’s Bruce Nuclear licence to protect Ontario’s energy supply. Others, like investing in farm upgrades and establishing stockpiles of fuel, fertilizer and pharmaceuticals will cost between $6 to $7 billion at today’s price of oil, my analysis finds. Wait until $150/bbl and the same measures will cost $17–39 billion.

While Canada’s governments should be racing to shield residents against next winter’s food, fuel and supply shocks, the only way to weather this storm and emerge stronger is to permanently reduce our reliance on fossil fuels through sustained, transformative investment.

For many northern First Nations, that means ending reliance on diesel-powered generators and replacing it with solar energy and an expanded electric grid. A green ammonia plant powered by hydroelectricity would end prairie farmers’ dependency on imported fertilizer. Ramping up Canadian pharmaceutical production to increase domestic supply is a matter of economic security.

A national passenger-rail renewal program could serve several needs at once. High oil prices can trigger a cascade of shocks through sales and manufacturing for aviation and vehicles. My analysis has determined that retooling auto and aviation plants to build passenger rail cars, paired with payments to owners who recycle vehicles, could create or preserve up to 358,000 jobs. Night trains and expanded auto ferries could replace short-haul flights on routes like Vancouver–Calgary and Calgary–Edmonton. Over its 80-to-100-year operational life, a national rail network would avoid an estimated 475 million to one billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.

Another major opportunity is converting Canada’s waste methane to hydrogen and carbon materials – methane that is being freely vented from coal mines, landfills and Alberta’s 80,000 stranded wells. Methane to hydrogen and carbon could create 100,000 jobs, many requiring the current skills of oilfield workers; it would be a new source of sought-after synthetic critical minerals, all while reducing Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions by up to 33% and generating billions in new revenue.

Acting now pays twice: higher oil prices improves the payback on alternatives, and these investments will never be cheaper.

Canada and the world are already in the most serious crisis since the 1930s. The United States is undermining our economy with tariffs, with the president openly threatening to make us the 51st state, and Alberta separatists are helping. Extraordinary times demand wartime-level economic responses. The Depression-era and wartime policies of C.D. Howe, William Lyon Mackenzie King and the Bank of Canada offer a proven path. These investments will toughen our economy and transform our infrastructure; the private sector has a role, but Ottawa must lead.

We do not have years or months. We have days. The sooner we act, the better the outcome – and fortune favours the bold.

Dougald Lamont has been a public policy researcher for 30-plus years. He was leader of the Manitoba Liberal Party and MLA for St. Boniface for five years and has lectured in government–business relations in Canada.