[Fossil fuel use is flat to declining globally, especially in wealthier countries. A few weeks ago I wrote two posts on the topic: one on oil (which sparked plenty of heated debate on LinkedIn, mostly from former oil guys) and another on the explosive growth of solar and wind. Yes, I was provocative in saying oil is on the way out. But long term, it is.
Quick note: I’m posting more on LinkedIn these days, and I don’t want to flood this space. I may move to Substack, but for now I’ll combine some posts and start sharing just headlines of my posts with links. Thanks for reading.]
1: Long-term Decline in Oil
Oil is on its way out.
It will take time, but the data is everywhere.
The chart below from The Economist shows a remarkable 50-year decline in the number of barrels of oil needed per $1,000 of global GDP (yes, GDP is a deeply flawed tool, but it roughly reflects the amount of stuff in the world).
It’s easy to get down about the harsh reality that carbon emissions keep rising. For now, energy demand (and growth in general) is outpacing the decline in fossil fuel intensity. But that rise in energy use gave humanity something important – real gains in living standards. So, now we must shift where that energy comes from.
Yes, emissions are rising. But carbon intensity is going down. We can be winning AND losing. It’s our duality.
We need to keep accelerating the winning part…
[Note, of course, GDP is a deeply flawed metric, but a shrinking oil demand per dollar is still meaningful.]
2: The U.S. President is Very Wrong About Wind Power
The President of the United States hates wind power.
And he lies — a lot — about a serious, fast-growing source of global energy.
I won’t waste time breaking down his latest rant (to EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen). But let’s stick to some key facts: wind power is cheap, long-lasting, and produces a lot of power (also, despite unhinged talking points, it kills FAR fewer birds than buildings or cats — see comments)
Now some data:
– Wind produced 6,100 TWh of total global energy in 2024 — roughly equal (90%) of nuclear.
– That’s about 3% of all energy (and 8% of electricity)…
…but it’s the contribution to energy GROWTH that’s critical.
From 2019 to 2024, wind provided:
– 20% of growth of ALL energy (solar: 27%)
– 27% of growth of electricity production (solar: 36%)
And over the past decade (2014-2024), here’s the compound ANNUAL growth rate (CAGR) by source:
Which sources of energy are the future?
Which would you invest in? (This is not a trick question).
[Note: I derived these figures from data from Our World in Data (see link in comments), which comes from the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy (published by bp for 70 years).]
See LinkedIn comments on this one here
2517
